Houston’s ‘Hot-tober’ heat linked to worsening drought that could extend into November

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — It shouldn’t come as a surprise that this October is on its way to becoming one of the warmest on record for the month in Houston.

There have been at least 14 days this month with high temperatures in the 90s, which is unusual to see that many and so late into October. In fact, our partners at Climate Central found that Houston’s last 90 degree day is 17 days later today than what it was in the 1970s, a trend associated with a warming climate.

This hot month follows a warm and dry stretch that began at the end of September. As of Oct. 20, Houston hasn’t received measurable rainfall since Sept. 24– almost a month ago. Pair that with well above normal temperatures for this time of year, drought conditions have set in across most of southeast Texas. Local drought conditions could continue to get worse before they get better. Not just from the lack of rain, but heat too.

A new study from Climate Central found that at the turn of the century, drought conditions across the western half of the country began to be driven by the heat, not just the lack of rain. This is a significant finding as before that, data from the 1940s to 1990s suggests that droughts were primarily driven by a lack of precipitation.

This is an important climate connection to consider when predicting the length and severity of a potential drought. This also means that in a warming world, drought conditions could settle in faster than previously thought.

Considering the current drought and forecast over the next two weeks, drought conditions that are already in place will likely continue into November. While there is some rain in the forecast for southeast Texas before the end of October, current projections show this rainfall will only be enough to prevent the current drought from getting worse. In other words, the amount of rain currently in the forecast won’t be enough to begin to reverse what’s already set into place.

One reason that’s concerning is because of the potential wintertime pattern that could set in across the United States. This as a weak La Niña will likely develop over the next few months, and a La Niña wintertime pattern typically favors a warm and drier weather pattern across Texas with the jet stream farther north across the country.

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