Winter outlook for Southeast Texas shows warm, drier trend, not good news for drought conditions

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — These recent chilly mornings in Southeast Texas mean one thing: winter is coming. And after a very warm start to fall and one of the warmest Octobers on record in Houston, ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith looked into what Texas can expect this winter.

Let’s start with the big picture and the developing La Niña in the Pacific. A La Niña is the cooler phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Observations in the equatorial Pacific Ocean show that cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures emerged this past September and have remained through early November. This means a La Niña has officially formed and is forecast to persist through at least February of 2026.

The importance of monitoring this part of the ocean is because of how it can influence the jet stream over the United States, especially during hurricane season and winter. A La Niña wintertime pattern typically features a more variable polar jet stream across North America. This would favor a colder, wetter winter for the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and northeast with warmer-than-normal conditions across the southern half of the country, including in Southeast Texas.

Specifically for Texas, a La Niña winter can also tend to be drier than normal, which is not necessarily good news, citing recent drought conditions that have settled in across the state. As of Nov. 4, most of Southeast Texas is reporting having from abnormally dry to severe drought conditions. And while these drought conditions could fluctuate county by county with each rainy weather system that passes by, generally, drought conditions that have settled in now could easily continue through the month and even into the start of winter. And with the chance of a warmer and drier winter thanks to the current La Niña, this drought could be concerning even into 2026.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index, a tool used to forecast drought conditions, shows most of Southeast Texas needs about four to upwards of eight inches of rainfall to balance out the water table, and that’s not in the forecast for the next seven to 10 days. Elsewhere across the country, drought conditions could also develop or persist in the Southwest, Gulf Coast, and New England. On the flip side, drought conditions across portions of the Great Lakes and Pacific Northwest could improve over the next few months.

One interesting fact about La Niña winters in Southeast Texas: While the overall trend favors a warmer and drier winter, that doesn’t mean the region isn’t susceptible to colder days. Based on previous El Niño and La Niña years dating back to 1990, there is a noticeable trend, with which phase provides sharper, colder temperatures and more freezes. And that is the La Niña. Of the 15 winters since 1990 with a La Niña present, each saw temperatures drop below 32 degrees, and the average number of freezes per winter was around ten days. And a notable La Niña winter of recent memory for Houston was just last year, when the Gulf Coast region had a significant snowstorm in late January.

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