Texans’ home opener wins are linked to a heat and rain weather trend, data shows

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — Monday marked the 24th home opener for the Houston Texans since they’ve played in their current stadium at NRG Park.

As it turns out, home openers in Houston have had a variety of weather conditions, some of which even impacted the game. ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith looked into that and the history behind what has made a winning game day forecast for the Houston Texans’ home opener.

The current stadium opened in 2002 under a different name, Reliant Stadium. Since then, it’s been the home of the Houston Texans. After examining the weather for all 23 previous home openers, the teams the Texans faced, and their wins and losses, ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith came up with the perfect equation for an opening day forecast.

First up, temperatures. The Texans’ home openers usually take place in early to mid-September when highs are usually in the low to mid-90s. That’s the case with 15 past openers having highs in the 90s, six had temps in the 80s, and only two had temperatures that didn’t make it out of the 70s that day. Both of those gamedays were also rainy, and the Texans lost both games.

Make that in terms of win percentages based on afternoon highs, the Texans won over 65% of the games they played when temperatures were in the 90s. This includes the record hot home opener in 2011 against the Colts when it reached 99 degrees. To this day, it’s the daily record high temperature in the city for Sept. 11. Now, when highs were in the 80s, the Texans only won one of six games. That’s about a 16% chance of winning at that mark. And the 70-degree days, zero for wins. But that’s rare for Houston to be that cool in September anyway.

As for precipitation, as a fan, you probably don’t want to get rained on at your tailgate or walking into NRG for the game. Glad the stadium has a roof in this case, but history shows that the Texans have a better chance of winning their home opener when there’s rain in the forecast. The Texans have won six of the eleven games since 2002 when it rained on the home opener.

Finally, the foes… AFC or NFC? While the Texans are more likely to face an AFC team for their home opener, historically, the team has had a better chance of winning at home for game one against an NFC team. That’s a 57% chance of winning against the NFC for the home opener over a 41% chance against an AFC team.

So, putting it all together. A winning forecast just based on what’s previously occurred for home openers, Texans fans would want temperatures in the 90s, a chance for rain in the forecast, and to face an NFC team. And as luck would have it, that’s what’s got on tap for Monday Night Football.

One last honorable mention regarding Texans, especially considering how the weather impacted the season, was in 2008. Hurricane Ike made landfall on Sept. 13, 2008, as a strong Category 2 hurricane. The Texans’ home opener that year was scheduled for the 15th against the Baltimore Ravens. The game was postponed because the storm damaged the roof of the stadium. That meant the Texans took an early week two bye, and that game was rescheduled for later in the season. Eventually, fans were welcomed back for the season’s new home opener about a month later on Oct. 8 when the Texans faced the Colts.

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